Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.025300 0.028753 0.032533 0.036984 0.042088 0.047764 0.054566
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.019444 0.024010 0.029466 0.036484 0.045305 0.056064 0.070244
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.016324 0.021297 0.027593 0.036189 0.047687 0.062623 0.083646
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.014589 0.019911 0.026979 0.037116 0.051396 0.070955 0.100058
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.012849 0.018217 0.025639 0.036742 0.053092 0.076531 0.113127
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.011934 0.017516 0.025524 0.037974 0.057071 0.085630 0.132264
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.010517 0.015905 0.023885 0.036713 0.057105 0.088748 0.142503
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.009491 0.014756 0.022787 0.036108 0.058001 0.093173 0.155193
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.008440 0.013455 0.021312 0.034717 0.057429 0.095093 0.163822
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.008089 0.013227 0.021499 0.036025 0.061417 0.104921 0.187168
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007764 0.013003 0.021659 0.037283 0.065415 0.115143 0.212407
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007460 0.012783 0.021794 0.038491 0.069421 0.125761 0.239627
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006892 0.012067 0.021032 0.038062 0.070476 0.131233 0.257951
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006387 0.011419 0.020334 0.037685 0.071594 0.136965 0.277589
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005946 0.010843 0.019709 0.037371 0.072774 0.142900 0.298341
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005717 0.010640 0.019749 0.038330 0.076559 0.154418 0.332410
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005339 0.010119 0.019141 0.037943 0.077552 0.160289 0.354848
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005191 0.010027 0.019348 0.039218 0.082133 0.174212 0.397332
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004766 0.009356 0.018357 0.037913 0.081047 0.175717 0.411022
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004452 0.008881 0.017718 0.037287 0.081372 0.180362 0.432815
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.004084 0.008266 0.016744 0.035848 0.079723 0.180329 0.443042
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004011 0.008257 0.017029 0.037202 0.084603 0.196021 0.495249
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003934 0.008234 0.017280 0.038503 0.089495 0.212297 0.551324